A tool to evaluate tree improvement practices regarding breeding value, genetic parameters, among and within family selection, breeding strategy, cost, time and relatedness and production population (seed orchards, clonal forestry). Gainpredictor focuses on short term breeding heading for forest regeneration material within a limited time, for long term breeding, breeding cycler may be a better option. There is a simple and old version GAINPRED.xls and a more advanced version; GAINPRED_ADVANCED2002.xls. With the advanced tool it is possible to compare different strategies under different conditions concerning: genetic gain; cost; time; and "effective number" (gene diversity). Thus it is actually more a deterministic breeding simulator than just a gain predictor. The slightly older version GAINPRED_ADVANCED2000.xls will be kept on this site some time ahead as a back-up and for older set-ups.

Get started:

If you have difficulties with the advanced version, the simpler version may be tried first. There are some examples which may help you to better understand gainpredictor.

Literature:

The gain of different breeding alternatives are compared based mainly on calculations by:  Lindgren D and Werner M (1989). Gain generating efficiency of different Norway spruce seed orchard designs. In Stener L-G and Werner M (editors) Norway spruce: provenances, breeding and genetic conservation. Institutet for skogsförbättring. Rapport 11:189-206.

There has been an examination work using Gainpredictor as a tool by Milan Lstiburek (2000), which may be instructive. 

Recently the possibility to evaluate group merit progress per year (thus not just gain progress per year) was added (cf Wei, R.-P. & Lindgren, D 2001 Optimum breeding generation interval considering build-up of relatedness. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 31:  722-729).

You may find some helpful information in Lindgren D, Wei R-P and Lee S. (1997). Optimum family number in the first cycle of a breeding program. For. Sci. 43(2): 206-212; some helpful formula are also given by Shelbourne, C. J. A. 1992: Genetic Gains from Different Kinds of Breeding Population and Seed or Plant Production Population. South African Forestry Journal No 160: 49 - 65.

Feed back request and acknowledgement
I appreciate feed back, preferable by E-mail. Do you run into problems when you try the examples (which are offered elsewhere on this website). People may interpret the programs, the explanations or even the examples in all sort of unexpected ways and when run into trouble, and if I get to know how, I may take actions so it will not happen again. The programs may not work for all situations. And there may be direct mistakes (it would not be the first time I made a mistake), but how should I no if no-one told me? Ola Rosvall and Milan Lstiburek have helped me by focusing my attention on problems and possibilities. The EC project FAIR CT98-3823 has supported development into the 2001 version and its focus on clonal testing and optimisation.

This webpage was last edited 2002-10-7 by Dag Lindgren.